Catan Resource Probability Calculator
Calculate the settlement production probability and expected resource income per 36 rolls for any combination of Catan hex numbers.
Results
What is it?
In Catan, two dice are rolled each turn and any settlement adjacent to a hex with that number produces a resource. The probability of rolling a given number equals the number of ways to make it with 2d6, divided by 36 total combinations. The dots (pips) printed on hexes show this directly: 6 and 8 have 5 dots (5/36 probability each), 7 has 6 combinations but is the robber.
How to use
Select the pip count corresponding to each number token on the hexes adjacent to your settlement (up to 3 hexes). The pip value is the number of dots printed on the token. The calculator gives your total per-roll probability and expected resources over 36 rolls (approximately 1 full game).
Example scenario
Settlement on 6, 8, and 5 tokens: 5/36 + 5/36 + 4/36 = 14/36 = 38.9% per roll. Over a 72-roll game you expect approximately 28 resources from this single settlement ? excellent production. A settlement on 2 and 12 only gives 2/36 = 5.6% ? very weak.
Pro tip
The maximum possible pip count for a single settlement in Catan is 15 (three hexes of 6, 8, and 5 ? but 6 and 8 cannot be adjacent by the rules). Aim for at least 10+ pips on your initial placements. Diversify across 3-4 different resource types early ? brick and wood for roads to expand, ore and grain for cities later.