Non-Constant Growth Stock Valuation
Value a stock with an initial high-growth phase followed by stable perpetual growth using a two-stage Dividend Discount Model.
Results
What is it?
The two-stage Dividend Discount Model values a stock experiencing an initial period of above-normal (high) growth followed by a stable, perpetual growth phase. It is ideal for growth companies expected to eventually mature. The value is the sum of the PV of dividends during the high-growth phase plus the PV of the terminal (Gordon) value.
How to use
Enter the current dividend, the high-growth rate and its duration in years, the long-term stable growth rate, and your required return. The required return must exceed the stable growth rate for the model to produce valid results.
Example scenario
A company pays $1.50 now, growing dividends at 20% for 5 years, then 3% forever. Required return is 12%. PV of high-growth dividends ≈ $11.67. Terminal dividend = $1.50 × 1.2ⵠ× 1.03 ≈ $3.85. Terminal value = $3.85 / 0.09 ≈ $42.73. PV of terminal = $42.73 / 1.12ⵠ≈ $24.24. Intrinsic value ≈ $35.91.
Pro tip
The terminal value often dominates the total valuation (60–80%). This makes the stable growth rate and required return assumptions critical. Sensitivity analysis on g₂ and r is strongly recommended.